Intrade.com and that S-shape

In my last post about this I observed an S-shape in the results of the polling data, and speculated that it might show psychological bias on the part of the Intraders. I’m not so sure now. This graph shows all polls in the last 30 days; recent polls are dark colours and older ones lighter,…

Polling vs Intrade.com

Mercurial merge technique

We’re using Mercurial here at LShift for much of our development work, now, and we’re finding it a great tool. We make heavy use of branches (“branch per bug”) for many projects, and this is also a pretty smooth experience. One issue that has come up is policy regarding merging the trunk (“default”) into any…

TiddlyWiki, Quining, and Smalltalk

Yesterday I visited Osmosoft, the developers of TiddlyWiki, to chat about getting some DVCS-like functionality into TiddlyWiki. Jeremy mentioned in passing that TiddlyWiki is, if you squint, a slightly cheating kind of a Quine. It struck me this morning that TiddlyWiki has strong similarities to another famous almost-Quine, the Smalltalk system. TiddlyWiki is a composition…

diff3, merging, and distributed version control

Yesterday I presented my work on Javascript diff, diff3, merging and version control at the Osmosoft Open Source Show ‘n Tell. (Previous posts about this stuff: here and here.) The slides for the talk are here. They’re a work-in-progress – as I think of things, I’ll continue to update them. To summarise: I’ve used the…

Last word on Clinton v Obama: I think it’s illusory

Clinton will probably drop out of the race in the next few days, so let’s give the diagram showing both of them one last airing. This looks at a month’s worth of polling data to give a picture of how their relative chance of victory has changed over time – it’s an animated GIF, so…